Conference on the Impact of the War in Sudan on the Horn of Africa

Introduction

The war in Sudan, which erupted on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had previously been part of the special forces affiliated with the Sudanese Army before being classified as a rebel force, has become one of the most pressing issues occupying the international and regional community today.

The war has serious implications for security and stability in the Horn of Africa and neighbouring countries, many of which already suffer from fragile political and security conditions. These developments are likely to exacerbate regional security challenges across the region, particularly given Sudan’s pivotal role in its regional environment.

Against this background, the Horn of Africa Centre for Studies and Research intends to shed light on this critical issue through an in-depth study examining the impact of the war on regional security and stability.

Regional Security

There is no doubt that regional security and stability constitute a cornerstone for achieving development and progress in the countries of the region, in addition to their role in maintaining the stability of political systems. The relationship between security and political stability is closely interconnected: the absence of security undermines political stability, and vice versa.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces can be classified as an urban war, with the three-city capital area of Sudan becoming the principal theatre of military operations. The resulting confrontations have severely affected civilians, paralysed state institutions and movement, displaced large numbers of people, and undermined human security in Sudan.

This situation has, in turn, opened the way for increased displacement, migration, and refugee movements towards neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa and the wider Arab region.

Political Fragility

The threat posed by the war to Sudan’s security and stability has extended beyond the country’s borders to affect the wider region. Political stability represents an important foundation for the economic, developmental, and political advancement of states.

This is particularly evident in the Horn of Africa, where political instability has reached a level that may be described as persistent turmoil. The region is characterised by multiple conflicts and disputes, whether resulting from internal wars that affect the stability of political systems and the balance among domestic political forces, or from regional dynamics driven by fluctuations in foreign policies, which constitute a major factor in regional stability.

Wars and conflicts in the region remain among the most significant drivers of political and security instability.

Political instability within regional systems is also shaped by the nature of relations between states, which range from cooperation to competition and are influenced by numerous factors. In the Horn of Africa, internal conflicts and armed confrontations are among the most important factors negatively affecting regional stability.

Accordingly, the war in Sudan requires an in-depth analysis of the regional policies of the countries concerned, their positions towards the conflict, and their interests in Sudan and the wider region.

This is particularly important given Sudan’s central position in the Horn of Africa and the possibility that the consequences of the war may extend beyond its borders to affect the region as a whole.

Regional conflicts tend to expand in scope and intensity, depending on geographical boundaries, the number of potential actors involved, the scale of resources, the types of weapons used, the support provided to the parties, and the positions adopted regarding the objectives of the war.

Internal wars within any regional system can alter the nature of interstate relations and may contribute to regional disorder that runs counter to the interests of both peoples and states.

Call for Research Papers

The call for research papers adopts an analytical methodology based on available sources, including international reports, academic studies, expert analyses, and available field information.

It seeks to analyse the various dimensions of the war in Sudan and its effects on regional security and stability, with particular emphasis on its impact on neighbouring countries and the Sahel and Sahara region, as well as its implications for security in Egypt and Sudan itself.

The research will examine the political, economic, and social factors that contributed to the outbreak of the war and analyse its repercussions on countries including:

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, South Sudan, Kenya, Libya, Chad, Niger, Mali, and the Central African Republic.

The research also aims to analyse the impact of the war on human and social security at both the local and national levels, while seeking to develop forward-looking perspectives on Sudan’s future foreign relations and the country’s security and stability.

Expected Outcomes

The research project is expected to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the war in Sudan on regional security and stability and to offer insights into possible future trajectories for Sudan and the wider region.

Target Audience

The research project targets:

• Researchers and academics
• Policymakers and decision-makers
• Specialists in African affairs
• Experts and practitioners
• Students and researchers interested in regional studies
• The general public interested in understanding the dimensions of the Sudanese crisis and its regional implications

Conference Objectives

The conference, entitled “The Impact of the War in Sudan on the Horn of Africa,” aims to analyse the nature of relations among the countries of the region.

A comparative analysis may demonstrate how the impact of the war varies according to the political, economic, security, and strategic strength of each country.

The conference will highlight the key actors and examine how their interactions have been affected by the war in Sudan, whether positively or negatively.

The conference is based on the premise that each country has its own internal political context, which influences its political system and regional interactions.

It will also examine the role of regional states, in cooperation with the international community, in promoting security, stability, and peace in the Horn of Africa.

Conference Themes

Theme One: Causes of the War in Sudan

• Political causes of the war
• Ideological causes
• Economic causes
• Social causes

Theme Two: Impact of the War on Security and Stability in the Horn of Africa

• Impact of the war on the Horn of Africa countries:
  • Eritrea
  • Ethiopia
  • Somalia
  • Djibouti
  • South Sudan
  • Kenya
• Impact on national, human, and social security
• Refugees and displacement
• Political, security, and military implications
• Political stability
• Political opposition
• Political support for the warring parties
• Continental and international support
• Impact on diplomacy
• Impact on the security and military environment

Theme Three: Impact of the War on the Economy of the Horn of Africa

• Impact on the economy and investment
• Impact on intra-regional trade
• Trade routes
• Movement of imports and exports across various sectors
• Livestock
• Travel and tourism

Theme Four: Impact of the War on Regional Stability in the Horn of Africa

Trends in Regional Relations during the Period from 15 April 2023 to March 2025

• Sudan–Eritrea relations
• Sudan–Ethiopia relations
• Sudan–Somalia relations
• Sudan–Djibouti relations
• Sudan–South Sudan relations
• Sudan–Kenya relations

Theme Five: Impact of the War in Sudan on the Sahel and Sahara Region

15 April 2023 – March 2025

• Political impacts
• Military impacts
• Security impacts
• Social impacts
• Economic impacts
• Health impacts
• Refugees
• Political opposition
• Border security

Theme Six: Sudan’s Regional Political Relations with the Sahel and Sahara Countries

• Sudan–Libya relations
• Sudan–Chad relations
• Sudan–Niger relations
• Sudan–Mali relations
• Sudan–Central African Republic relations

Theme Seven: Impact of the War on Security and Political Stability in Egypt

• Political impact
• Military impact
• Security impact
• Social impact
• Economic impact
• Health impact

Theme Eight: Impact of the War on Security and Stability in Sudan

• Human and social security
• Local-level security across different localities
• State-level security across Sudan’s states
• Comprehensive national security
• Regional security

Theme Nine: Future Trajectories for Sudan Following the April 2023 War

• Future of Sudan’s political relations with the countries of the Horn of Africa
• Future relations with the Sahel and Sahara countries
• Future Sudan–Egypt relations
• Future of security and stability in Sudan

Theme Ten: Sudan’s Relations with Neighbouring and Sahel Countries

• Indicators and trends in Sudan’s relations with neighbouring countries
• Indicators of Sudan’s relations with the countries of the Sahel and Sahara
• Prospects for regional cooperation and integration

Conference Timeline

Conference Duration

The conference will be held over three consecutive days, from 7 to 9 December 2025.